Crude oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dropped by a total of 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January to average 26.34 million bpd, according to OPEC’s monthly oil market report released on Tuesday.
Crude oil output increased mainly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, while production in Libya, Kuwait, Iraq and Algeria decreased.
The UAE’s production climbed by around 31,000 bpd, Saudi Arabia’s by 25,000 bpd, and Venezuela’s by 14,000 bpd last month. However, production declined in Libya, Kuwait, Iraq and Algeria by 162,000 bpd, 109,000 bpd, 98,000 bpd and 46,000 bpd, respectively.
OPEC’s share of global oil production fell slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 25.9% in January amid a general downturn in global oil supply.
Non-OPEC liquids production, which also includes OPEC Natural Gas Liquids (NGLS), is estimated to record a month-on-month decline of 200,000 bpd in January to average 75.5 million bpd. However, this marks a 1.6 million bpd rise relative to production in the same month last year.
Output mainly decreased in the US and Other Eurasia, with rises in China, Canada and Brazil partially offsetting this fall.
Preliminary data revealed a decrease of 600,000 bpd in global liquids production, averaging 101.8 million bpd for January.
The total global rig count in January was 1,864, marking an increase of 63 rigs from December.
OPEC countries accounted for 443 of these rigs, with a rise of 12 rigs, while non-OPEC countries commissioned 51 rigs.
– Global oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025
The OPEC group’s forecast of global oil demand growth for 2024 remains unchanged at over 2.2 million bpd from the previous month’s estimate.
The forecast was mostly unchanged from last month, although a slight upward adjustment was made in the US due to higher economic recovery expectations, which is expected to positively impact oil demand.
OECD Americas are projected to lead oil demand growth, with the OECD region’s growth rate of around 300,000 bpd and OECD Europe and Asia Pacific supporting a minor uptick.
In the non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to see a healthy growth of 2 million bpd year on year, driven by China and supported by the Middle East, Other Asia, India and Latin America.
Total world oil demand is expected to reach 104.4 million bpd in 2024, bolstered by strong air travel demand and increased road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities, particularly in non-OECD countries.
Also, capacity additions and petrochemical margins in non-OECD countries, mostly in China and the Middle East, are expected to contribute to oil demand growth. However, the group points to economic uncertainties in inflation levels, monetary tightening measures and sovereign debt levels that could weigh on global oil demand prospects in the current year.
In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see robust annual growth of 1.8 million bpd. The OECD is expected to grow annually by 100,000 million bpd, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 million bpd.
By Sibel Morrow